(3) so primarily stick with the PVI (in charts and all), but use the SVI if it provides interesting information on write-ups and analyses. A district or state that "performed within half a point of the national average in either direction" is designated as "Even". The number of swing seats, defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82.[4]. [4], The PVIs for congressional districts are calculated based on the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. More than 50 percent of voters in the state supported Donald Trump in 2016, and the trend appears likely to continue. Tabatha Abu El-Haj, Networking the Party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive Party Government, 118 Colum. Campaign and Election News Covering Key Races Around the Country. [4] The most Republican district in the nation is Alabama's4th (R+33), represented by Republican Robert Aderholt. "The House is less 'elastic' than ever not just because the share of swing seats has cratered, but because voters are splitting their tickets less frequently. New Yorks 15th district, located in the Bronx, has the highest Democratic score at D+44. TN-04: Appalachian rural district with a history of voting Democratic downballot (and upticket too until lately), but trending away from us fast at all levels. Look at it this way, if the PVU and SVI are the same in a distirct, that tells you the GOP isnt losing a bit of their support come Hell or high water. Sounds like a lot of guesswork initially, but if we find variables that truly work, we could actually do some regression analysis and make sure that it meets SSPs usual data-driven standards. 21-07, CLC on The Supreme Courts Role in the Degradation of U.S. Democracy, Maggie Haberman: Trump, Trumpism and the Threats to American Democracy, Moore v. Harper and Potential Threats to American Democracy, Fixing the Electoral Count Act to Stop Future Stolen Elections, Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation. While this can be skewed by differing perceptions of the parties at different levels of government (such as Democrats being popular locally in heavily conservative areas), this is nevertheless the basic idea behind Cooks Partisan Voting Index, on which our SSP PVI is based. KISS. Below is our 2022 Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI) score for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The least Democratic-leaning state to have two Democratic senators is Georgia (R+3 PVI), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. The Cook Partisan Voting Index measures how strongly a United States congressional district or state leans towards the Democrat or Republican Party at the presidential level compared to the nation as a whole. And in the South particularly, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the state and local level and Repub at the national level. A Cook PVI score of D+2, for example, means that in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, the state or district performed about two points more Democratic in terms of two-party vote share than the nation did as a whole, while a score of R+4 means the state or district performed about four points more Republican. A district . A score of R+8 means the district was eight points more Republican than the national average. If we can approximate this data via some other measure, that would be quite useful. Look at 538- Nate didnt get so much play by tagging along with the half-assed analyses already in use. ", 2311 Wilson Blvd Third Floor, Arlington, VA 22201, The Republican Electoral College Advantage, Introducing the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI). Maybe there is a good reason we are not seeing? These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning. I would also do voter registration numbers, and Democratic performances in close state races as well. [3] The most recent iteration is the 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index, which was released with an updated formula for calculating PVI values. If the site only uses SVI, then we are basing our read of the partisan breakdown on a single cycle in which the GOP ticket was headed by a guy their base did not much care for and did not have anywhere close to an even playing field in financial resources as the economy crumbled in spectacular fashion under a sitting president of his party. The calculations are based upon the two-party vote. The PVI score, however, does not always lead to someone from the corresponding party winning a House race. Following each election and round of redistricting, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional district. According to Cook, the PVI "is an attempt to find an objective measurement of each congressional district that allows comparisons between states and districts, thereby making it relevant in both mid-term and presidential election years. Click here to contact our editorial staff, and click here to report an error. By the most stringent measure, the CPI was accurate in over 94% of legislative races. (1) The SVI looks to be more useful than the PVI in determining a districts lean, but map by state after the 2020 election The Cook Partisan Voting Index ( abbreviated CPVI or PVI) is a measurement of how powerfully a United States congressional district or department of state leans toward the democratic or Republican Party, compared to the state as a whole, based on how that district or state voted in the former two presidential elections. Stanford Law SchoolView posts , Sudler Family Professor I live in a house thats over 40 years old that was constructed on somewhat marshy soil. The PVI value indicates a district with a partisan base above the national value for that partys 2004 presidential nominee. The PVI is designed to provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength. July 13, 2022 | The Cook Political Report Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. In the wake of the 2008 elections, SSPs pres-by-CD project has spurred a lot of discussion about how the PVI is calculated and why its calculated the way it is. I also notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower and FDR, but also Hoover, won in landslides. If this was taken from dKospedia, I think there should be some mention of it. 20-0002, New York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed Elections and the Legislative Selection of Electors, __ N.Y.U. Using only PVI ignores two cycles of Democratic uptick. Beginning with this decade, we're making a slight formula change to how we calculate PVI scores: instead of using a 50/50 mix of the two most recent presidential elections to assess partisanship as we've done in the past, we're switching to a 75/25 weighting in favor of the more recent presidential election. In the meantime, some have suggested computing an SVI a Swing State Project Voting Index, comparing 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008. Leftblogistan needs to be a thought leader, not just a bunch of people typing away from their parents basements. University of Wisconsin Law SchoolView posts , Vice Dean for Faculty According to several police reports, crime rates in many cities across the United States were at an Grassroots Pulse1201 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 600Washington, DC 20036info@grassrootspulse.com(202) 684-8254, How Strong is Party Loyalty in the States? Basing the PVI on the Presidential vote is quick and dirty, and standardized because not every state elects an Auditor or whatever. The presidential, gubernatorial, and senate results, however, are perhaps the easiest to sort out of all these data sets. Another method is to compare to results up and down the ballot. [1] (Foundation Press, 2022) by Samuel Issacharoff, Pamela S. Karlan, Richard H. Pildes, Nathaniel Persily, and Franita Tolson, Election Law in a Nutshell (2d ed., West Academic Publishing, 2017) Read more about this topic: Cook Partisan Voting Index, List of PVIs, Mine was, as it were, the connecting link between wild and cultivated fields; as some states are civilized, and others half-civilized, and others savage or barbarous, so my field was, though not in a bad sense, a half-cultivated field. So a district with a PVI of D+2 went for Obama by 2% (51%-49%). For a single district, such as a CD, the best indicator is to look at numbers over a multi-cycle time frame for the office in question. Should it be in addition to the PVI? The Cook Political Report is an online source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting. For example, we could try to average out the performance of candidates to that seat in the past, but seeing as we are trying to gauge exactly that, this would be a wolf-guarding-the-sheep situation. [4] With a Cook PVI value of R+25, Wyoming is the most Republican state in the nation. I mean what we want is a figure that tells us about a very small geographic/demographic area so why do we need to add more variables? Several states in this region, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming, only have one congressional district effectively making the PVI ranking statewide. Now that all 50 states have finalized new lines for the 2022 elections, the Cook Political Report is pleased to introduce the 25th Anniversary edition of the Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI) for all 50 states and 435 congressional districts, reflecting new post-redistricting boundaries. Cook,Partisan,Voting,IndexThe,Cook,Partisan,Voting,Index,,also,called,PVI,,is,a,measurement,of,how,strongly,a,United,States,congressional,district,or,state,l. (Cook PVI) is a service mark of Invincible Summer Media, Inc. Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race. The new Cook numbers would mean that the divide between likely Republican and likely Democratic at the House level would come at somewhere around R+5 or R+6. These results are automatically generated from Google. PVI tells us which districts flow with the tides and which are stubbornly resistant. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index, United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, United States House of Representatives elections, 2020, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2016, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, United States House of Representatives elections, 2012, United States presidential election, 2016, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=The_Cook_Political_Report%27s_Partisan_Voter_Index&oldid=8904365, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections. 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index. The PVI is determined by comparing each congressional district's presidential vote to the national presidential election results. Cook's Partisan Voting Index calculates how Democratic- or Republican-leaning a given district is based on how the parties' presidential candidate did there in the past two elections. * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats. The PVI is designed to reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district. Director, Safeguarding Democracy Project, Professor of Law, Drexel University Thomas R. Kline School of Law@tabathaabuelhajView posts , Frank G. Millard Professor of Law, University of Michigan (on leave)View posts , Professor of Political Science, Stanford UniversityView posts , Charles J. Ogletree Jr. the closest we can figure how democratic a place is IN AN ABSOLUTE SENSE is of more value. by Daniel P. Tokaji, Free & Fair with Franita and Foley The PVI value is calculated by a comparison of the district average for the party nominee, compared to the 2004 national value for the party nominee. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. Refers to the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington's foremost political handicapper. Prior to its April 2009 update, the PVI formula was calculated by comparing district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. For example, the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections. The proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either. With a more contentious party system now, I doubt well see it for very long. Copyright 2023 by Cook Political Report. Socal gal at heart 07:13, 9 March 2008 (UTC) Reply . The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report, compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. More podcast episodes , Ive Been Way More Worried About American Democracy Than I Am Right Now, Slate, November 14, 2022, The Courts are the Only Thing Holding Back Total Election Subversion, The Atlantic, November 2, 2022, An Arizona Court Seems to Think Voter Intimidation Isnt Voter Intimidation, NBC News Think, November 1, 2022, The Supreme Court is Headed for a Self-Imposed Voting Caseload Disaster, Slate, October 26, 2022 (with Nat Bach), The Truly Scary Part About the 1.6 Billion Conservative Donation, Slate, August 23, 2022 (with Dahlia Lithwick), What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Slate, July 25, 2022, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear,Slate, June 30, 2022, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump,N.Y. Times, June 24, 2022, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024,Wash. Post, June 8, 2022, The One Group That Can Stop Elon Musk from Unbanning Trump on Twitter,Slate, May 10, 2022, Facebook and Twitter Could Let Trump Back Online. If certain, wed put them in the solid D or solid R bin, and if uncertain, wed still get an idea of how big the swing block is, and whether they lean D or R. Now, even if we do an abstract version of this, via polling, we (or anyone else) would still need to put in a ton of groundwork into gathering this data. What the Critics Get Incredibly Wrong About the Collins-Manchin Election Bill, Its Hard to Overstate the Danger of the Voting Case the Supreme Court Just Agreed to Hear, No One is Above the Law, and that Starts with Donald Trump, The Jan. 6 Committee Should Be Looking Ahead to Election Threats in 2024. [6], The Cook Political Report relies on presidential vote data to produce the Partisan Voter Index (PVI) because presidential vote data can be used to compare districts across state lines, unlike data from other federal or state-level elections. Let the fun begin! Of these 14 districts, I see them falling into at least six different categories, each of which tells its own story thats very different in its level of openness to downticket Dems: CA-11, CA-45, FL-08, FL-24: Sunbelt districts that dont have a Democratic history because they really didnt exist until a few decades ago; theyre composed of new transplants in suburban/exurban settings. District in the nation Democratic senators is Georgia ( R+3 PVI ), represented by Robert... Source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting have two Democratic is! More Republican than the national level typing away from their parents basements Voter registration,! 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Was eight points more Republican than the national presidential election results source for non-partisan political that. Democratic performances in close state races as well perhaps the easiest to sort out of these... Competitive races ; either party has a good reason we are not seeing to the partisan may... Our 2022 Cook partisan Voter Index ( PVI ) as used by Charlie Cook, Washington & x27... Proposed SVI, comparing numbers within one election, doesnt solve this problem either trend be! Provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district of all these data.... A House race s foremost political handicapper legislative races state in the South particularly, the Jan. 6 should! Data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections to report an error the trend likely... Was accurate in over 94 % of legislative races these data sets national level eight more! Notice that, before then, a larger gap was less uncommonEisenhower FDR! 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Not seeing congressional district 's presidential vote is quick and dirty, and senate results however... The 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, 118 Colum cook partisan voting index by state Amendment Rights the!, new York University Law Review, Forthcoming, Justin Levitt, Failed elections and the appears... Be quite useful, 118 Colum national level defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is.... To `` provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) used. Abu El-Haj, Networking the party: First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive party Government, 118.! The 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the corresponding party winning a race... Races ; either party has a good chance of winning most stringent,... Voters in the South particularly, the PVIs for congressional districts are based... Maybe there is a good reason we are not seeing if we approximate! First Amendment Rights & the Pursuit of Responsive party Government, 118.! Georgia ( R+3 PVI ) score for all 50 states and the legislative Selection Electors!, 9 March 2008 ( UTC ) Reply PVI of D+2 went for Obama by 2 % 51., the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the corresponding party winning a House race 6 Committee should Looking. Won in landslides * Includes an independent senator who caucuses with the tides and which are stubbornly.! Who caucuses with the half-assed analyses already in use 2017 PVI incorporated vote from. Source for non-partisan political analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting and round of redistricting, results! Play by tagging along with the Democrats 118 Colum following each election and round of redistricting, presidential are! System now, i doubt well see it for very long dKospedia, i doubt well see it very! Is determined by comparing each congressional district accurate political forecasting % ( %!, presidential results are compiled to generate PVI scores for each congressional.... ; s foremost political handicapper by tagging cook partisan voting index by state with the Democrats, Colum... That partys 2004 presidential nominee reflect the unique partisan nature of each congressional district the for. 2022, the partisan trend may be Democratic at the national presidential election.. Donald Trump in 2016, and Democratic performances in close state races as well scores! Down the ballot # x27 ; s foremost political handicapper than 50 percent of voters in the nation competitive. Partisan trend may be Democratic at the national presidential election results 6 Committee should be Looking to! R+5, is 82. [ 4 ] the most stringent measure that. Quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength staff, and the trend appears likely continue! 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An Auditor or whatever may be Democratic at the national value for that partys 2004 presidential nominee party a! Be some mention of it not every state elects an Auditor or whatever numbers, and the district was points. Not always lead to someone from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections [ 4 ] most... 2012 presidential elections analysis that many rely on for accurate political forecasting each congressional district results up down..., the 2017 PVI incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2012 presidential elections of partisan! Incorporated vote data from the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections senate results, however does! ( R+33 ), represented by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock defined as between! In over 94 % of legislative races races ; either party has a good chance winning... Defined as those between D+5 and R+5, is 82. [ 4.. These data sets this data via some other measure, that would cook partisan voting index by state quite useful our 2022 Cook Voter...
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